Russia sabotaging process in Grain Corridor

Ukrainian Grain Union (UGA) President Nikolay Gorbachov stated that many ships making shipments within the scope of the Grain Corridor are waiting for inspection, and that according to the statement of the Ukrainian Infrastructure Ministry, Russia deliberately slowed down the process.

Speaking to the EKONOMİ newspaper about the operation of the Grain Corridor, Gorbachov stated that some of the ships have been waiting for inspection for more than a month and some of them have been waiting for inspection for two or three weeks.

Representing the grain producers and exporters in Ukraine, the head of UGA Gorbachov stated that the number of inspection groups was first reduced to 3 and then they started to extend the inspection periods. He underlined that they even started to control it.

Gorbachov suggested that Turkey, together with Ukraine and the UN, could take a leadership role to increase the number of ships inspected despite the Russian side.

Stating that the number of inspection groups should be increased and even without the Russian side, Gorbachov pointed out that if Ukraine’s grain exports are blocked, food shortages and high prices will cause political instability in developing countries, as well as an increase in food inflation in developed countries.

In the statement made by the Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine, it was stated that a total of 99 vessels, including 72 vessels to Ukrainian ports and 27 vessels to Africa, Asia and Europe, were kept in the strait.

-How long are the ships making shipments within the scope of the Grain Corridor kept waiting for inspection?

As stated in the statement made by the Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine, some of those ships have been waiting for inspection for more than a month and some for two or three weeks. But basically, the waiting period should not exceed one or two days no matter what.

-Why did the shipping process slow down, how can the reason behind the waiting be explained?

The Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine explained that the reason for the slowdown of the process is the deliberate actions of Russian inspectors. They reduced the number of audit groups to 3, then began extending audit periods.

Russian representatives even began to control parameters that are not required by the Joint Coordination Center (JCC) and are not related to the subject of inspection, such as the amount of fuel. It looks like sabotage of the Russian team.

The Russian side deliberately slowed down the process in November, which caused the export of Ukrainian agricultural products to fall from 4 million tons in October to only 2.6 million tons in November.

– What are the conditions necessary for the stable operation of the grain aisle?

Ukraine and the world want to extend the operation of the Black Sea Grain Corridor indefinitely, or for at least one year. This will ensure a stable supply of Ukrainian grain to world markets and will guarantee Ukrainian farmers the opportunity to sell their grain and allocate resources to grow next year’s harvest.

We also believe that the inclusion of the Mykolaiv port will contribute to the stability of the Grain Corridor. This will increase grain shipments, reduce the cost of logistics, and ultimately provide cheaper food supplies to developing countries.

– What are the consequences if the parties do not fulfill their responsibilities in the Grain Corridor?

We believe that the number of audit groups should be increased, and even without the Russian side, audits should be carried out. And we already have successful experience with it. In October, when the Russians tried to sabotage the operations of the Grain Corridor, Ukraine, Turkey and the UN (as the side of the JCC, but without Russia) agreed on a plan for the movement of 14 ships on October 31, and the Russian side was also informed.

If Ukraine’s exports are blocked, food shortages and high prices will cause political instability in developing countries, especially in Africa and the Middle East, as well as an increase in food inflation in developed countries.

This political instability may turn into revolts and uprisings, as well as cause a new wave of mass migration to Turkey and Western countries. This is exactly what the aggressor country wants: to destabilize the countries dependent on Ukrainian grain in order to cause a new wave of mass migration to the West, thus leaving the Western countries in a political and economic situation.

– What is Turkey’s responsibility in this process?

As one of the supporters of the Grain Corridor, Turkey can take a leadership role in the Joint Control Center with Ukraine and the UN to increase the number of ships inspected despite the Russian side.

It is worth noting that Turkey is the second largest importer of Ukrainian grains and oilseeds. As of August 1, 2022, Turkey imported approximately 1.7 million tons of grains and oilseeds, including 0.8 million tons of wheat and 0.66 million tons of corn. Total imports including oil and pulses reached approximately 1.9 million tons.

– How much Ukrainian grain was exported within the framework of the Grain Corridor, can we learn your expectations for the next season?

Since the beginning of the Grain Corridor operation, about 16 million tons of agricultural products have been exported from Ukraine. And grains and oilseeds accounted for 14.9 million tons of this volume.

Exports from Ukraine in the 2022/2023 season may reach approximately 48 million tons of grains and oilseeds, provided that exports by sea are continued until the end of the season.

– Ukraine had a record grain harvest in 2021. Do you have numbers you can share for the 2022 and 2023 seasons?

Ukrainian Grain Union updated its harvest forecast for 2022 to 67.5 million tons. The preliminary estimation of grain and oilseed harvest for the coming year is 53.2 million tons, while exports are estimated as 39.7 million tons. Everything will depend on the conditions under which Ukrainian farmers will be able to plant in the spring and then harvest.

Grain Corridor will set the price

-The corridor made a great contribution to the recovery of wheat prices from record levels. Will the decline in wheat prices continue? What is your 2023 wheat price prediction?

Everything will depend on the stable operation of the Grain Corridor and the unhindered export of Ukrainian grain to the world market by the end of the season. As for the new season, which will start in July 2023, prices will also depend on the volume of crops in Ukraine and other main grain producers around the world.

Grain production of Ukraine, which was over 106 million tons in 2021, is expected to decrease to around 50 million tons in 2023. What is clear for now is that grain production in Ukraine will decrease by 50 million tons, which will cause an increase in food inflation worldwide, and this process will progress further in the near future. The only reason for this is Russia’s war against Ukraine. (My economy)