Jul 22: Kerch Strait transit seems to be recovering, though slowly and selectively. A small number of ships are jumping (so it looks like) to and from Azov/Black sea, with the main bulk of stuck ships remaining at anchor.
Russia declared something like unrestricted warfare at high seas, aimed at each and every Ukraine-bound cargo ship, but on Jul 21 backed off, after Ukraine retaliated with the same threat. Russia gave its’ “brilliant” idea a second thought, and understood, that sea warfare is the game for two, and that in the end, Russia has incomparably more to lose if this “sink ’em all” madness would be unleashed. There’s no grain deal anyway, and as for the rest, Ukraine is cut off commercial shipping since the beginning of the war, so the country has nothing to lose if Russian Navy hoist Jolly Roger flag and start roam around, sinking helpless civilians. But if Ukraine sinks or damages even one Russia-bound freighter, that will cut off the majority of shipowners trading with Russia. Insurers, crews, shippers – everybody will panic, and avoid Black sea routes. Speaking about supply chains, most important ones go through Russian Black sea and Far East ports. It is called, in plain language, to shoot in one’s own leg.
After Ukraine retaliated, Russia – surprise! – suddenly understood, who’s under greater threat, and backed off, using rather funny pretext – “it wasn’t about sinking civilian ships bound for Ukraine, it’s about stopping them at sea and checking their cargo”.
When grain deal was on, Russia was doing exactly the same, its’ officials checked the ships, but at Istanbul anchorages, not at high seas. How unromantic!
The best guess is, Russia will either prolong the grain deal, or close eyes at grain ships. But as of now, high risk alert remains valid. Russia is yelling everywhere about Ukrainian mines scattered all around Black sea, and Russia won’t miss an opportunity, if it comes by, to sink or damage merchant ship, and lay blame on Ukraine.
The warning for shipowners stays valid – it is better to hold on your Black sea charters, until smoke dissipates and the situation clears.
The opinions expressed herein are the author’s and not necessarily those of News2Sea.
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